A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
