Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
